Sunday, March 16, 2008

First-Glance Tourney Preview

As we all work to fill out our brackets over the next couple of days, we're all wondering: who is going to win the play-in game on Tuesday? The answer is Mount St. Mary's by a lot. Other than that though, here are my first quick thoughts on the regions:
EAST:

  • Which double-digit seed has the best chance to win a game? #11 St. Joseph's -- They beat high-ranked Xavier twice recently and #6 Oklahoma has some injury problems.
  • Which #5 or higher has the best chance to make the Sweet 16? #7 Butler -- They're a top-10 team that got a ridiculously low seed and they're veteran and tournament-tested. They have more than just a minor chance to knock off #2 Tennessee in the second round.
  • Who besides the #1 has the best chance to go to the Final Four? #2 Tennessee -- They're a little shaky (especially defensively), but they're very talented and were highly-ranked all season.
  • Who's coming out of the region? There's no reason to believe that it won't be #1 North Carolina.

MIDWEST:

  • Which double-digit seed has the best chance to win a game? #10 Davidson -- This is another mid-major team with tourney experience. #7 Gonzaga doesn't have a go-to scorer and can be vulnerable in a close game.
  • Which #5 or higher has the best chance to make the Sweet 16? #5 Clemson -- they played tough in the ACC tournament and have played very well as of late.
  • Who besides the #1 has the best chance to go to the Final Four? #2 Georgetown -- Their size will give them an advantage against Wisconsin and their style of offense creates problems for anyone.
  • Who's coming out of the region? #1 Kansas is the most athletic team in the country. They're well-coached, veteran, and hungry after coming close the last couple of years. This one is a no-brainer.


SOUTH:

  • Which double-digit seed has the best chance to win a game? #10 St. Mary's -- They are legit with good guards and a tough mid-major conference.
  • Which #5 or higher has the best chance to make the Sweet 16? #5 Michigan State -- Mark my words on this: #4 Pittsburgh is extremely overrated.
  • Who besides the #1 has the best chance to go to the Final Four? #3 Stanford -- This is a very tough regional and a number of teams have the chance, but the Pac-10 has been great this year and the Cardinal has two twin seven-footers that will dominate the paint.
  • Who's coming out of the region? I'm going to have to study this some more, but on first glance, I'll go with Stanford. I think the Lopez twins create matchup problems that no other team in this bracket can overcome.


WEST:

  • Which double-digit seed has the best chance to win a game? #11 Baylor -- They're coached by one of Homer Drew's sons (not Bryce), what more do you need to know?
  • Which #5 or higher has the best chance to make the Sweet 16? #5 Drake -- They've been great all year, they play stifling defense, and they play a motion offense that most teams (especially athletic ones like UConn) can't defend well.
  • Who besides the #1 has the best chance to go to the Final Four? It won't matter, really... But I guess that UConn could theoretically catch fire and play above their heads for a couple of weeks.
  • Who's coming out of the region? It'll be #1 UCLA. This is the easiest regional and they're the best team in the country. I picked them to win it all pre-season and I'm not changing it now.

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