Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Random Stuff

  • I don't know if it's because I'm getting old, but I'm having serious problems catching up on sleep. I stayed up past 4 on Monday night watching "Twilight Zone" and got maybe 6 hours. I've been a zombie since.
  • Tomorrow night, I've got Obama (-3) and Huckabee (-15). I'll be watching the coverage on MSNBC, personally. I assume that it will be Matthews and Olbermann leading the way.
  • HBO has begun to put their shows On Demand before they actually air. So I watched the season premiere of "The Wire" tonight. Baltimore's falling apart, Marlo is making his power play, and "McNutty" is truly back. Plus, "Homicide" co-star Clark Johnson is playing a Baltimore Sun editor. I think I'll end up watching it when it airs on Sunday nights though; I've never actually watched it live, only on DVD or downloaded Torrents.
  • Watching Australian "Biggest Loser" on Fox Reality. The channel shows a lot of "Blind Date" (yay!) and a lot of forgettable Fox reality shows (aww!). I kind of wish that they'd run the original "Joe Millionaire". Talk about lightning in a bottle -- that show is one of the underrated reality classics. They did run "Man vs. Beast" though. You might remember it as the show where Carl Lewis referred to a zebra as having a racing prime and the grand finale was a bunch of midgets pulling a plane against an elephant. And we're stuck with "Clash of the Choirs" during this writers' strike?
  • Speaking of, does it surprise anyone that Letterman would hook his staff up while Leno is crossing the picket line? Boycott the douchebag.

1 comment:

Roy said...

I mostly agree with your take on the Iowa odds. I'd put it at Obama (-4) and Huckabee (-8), but that's just me. What I am really interested in seeing is a) how McCain does; can he get third, how high a % etc. and b) will the national media pay any attention to the super low number of Rudy Guliani, who hasn't paid attention to Iowa, but still, may lag behind Ron Paul. That should be an embarrassment.

My breakdown on the primary races as a whole. On the Republican side; Four realistic contenders - Guliani, Romney, McCain, and Huckabee. I'll count Ron Paul as soon as he pulls 15% or 2nd place anywhere - fat chance. McCain numbers waver some poll to poll. He needs not just a N.H. win, but that to translate to no worse than a 2nd place in Michigan. If he can do that, he'll stand a fighting chance into S.C. on Jan 19th. Romney has somewhat strong numbers, but almost all 2nd places to someone else. He needs a win early; N.H. or Michigan, or he'll limp into FL needing a knockout blow. Guliani has seen his numbers fall, and while he is counting on a late strategy, hoping Florida and Super Tuesday will propel him, it won't. He needs the other candidates to trade wins evenly. If it gets narrowed down to a two or three person race (one of other big three, plus Thompson and Paul, drop out) by then, Rudy doesn't stand a chance. Huckabee has to hope these poll jumps will equate to actual votes, since sometimes such big jumps in the polls end up being somewhat artificial (see Dean, Howard).

Democrats. This one is more simple. Edwards needs Iowa. Without it, he's pretty much toast. He doesn't poll above 20% in any of the other pre-Super Tuesday states. Obama needs to get at least 2 of 3 (maybe even a sweep) of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, seeding MI and NV to Clinton. If Obama gets those three, polling numbers may shift, and they would battle it out in Florida. If Obama has not overtaken Clinton by the time Florida's votes are counted, Clinton will ride a huge wave into the nomination. Obama needs a few knock down blows early to change perception, or it's over, Johnny.

For the nominations, I'd set
Dem:
Clinton 7-2
Obama 5-1
Edwards 8-1

Rep:
Huckabee 7-1
Romney 9-1
McCain 9-1
Guliani 10-1

Sorry for the long reply, but you got me thinking about posting odds somewhere before any votes got cast.