Week 4

Soon to be 1/4 of the way through the season, probably the first real chance to reflect on who is what. Maybe power rankings tomorrow? Anyways, picks for the week (10-6 last week; 28-20 overall):

• Cincinnati (-6.5) at Cleveland: I can see some reason (letdown for the Bengals, home game for the Browns) to take the points. But, damn, how can you ever pick a team that already despised its new coach after two games?
• Detroit (+10) vs. Chicago: Cutler isn't playing blowouts. The Bears would be 0-3 if Jeff Reed and Olindo Mare could hit field goals.
• Houston (-9) vs. Oakland: JaMarcus Russell is bad.
• Indianapolis (-10.5) vs. Seattle: Learned my lesson last week. Let's try not to "bet" against Manning again, okay?
• Washington (-7.5) vs. Tampa: Yeah, yeah, I said Detroit sucked last week. But Tampa is really awful. So bad that they're turning to Florida Marlins ace Josh Johnson to play QB tomorrow.
• Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville: So due.
• New York Giants (-9.5) at Kansas City: Can we start the Scott Mitchell talk with Matt Cassel yet?
• Baltimore (+1.5) at New England: New England looked unimpressive against a very mediocre Atlanta team last week after looking bad against the Jets and not great against an awful Buffalo team (hard to believe how people are pretending like Buffalo isn't really, really bad). The Ravens are clicking in all phases. Could go either way, but I'll pick against the Ravens when they show they deserve it.
• Miami (+1.5) vs. Buffalo: Home dog against a team that has only beat Tampa? It's not like Pennington was winning games for the Dolphins or even the most important part of their offense.
• New Orleans (-7.5) vs. New York Jets: 7.5 is an awful lot. Just think the Jets D is bound to get exposed at some point. They are excellent, but they aren't "hold Brees scoreless" excellent.
• San Francisco (-10) vs. St. Louis: This line has actually moved towards the 49ers. That's how bad St. Louis is. They've lost 13 in a row.
• Denver (+3) vs. Dallas: So Dallas has beaten Tampa, lost to the Giants, and looked shaky against a horrible Carolina team. Their defense is not that good and their QB loves to turn the ball over. And they're road favorites against a team with Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins? A team that has a QB that is playing much more efficiently than people realize? A team that has held all of its opponents to seven or less, with the seven coming against a Cincy team that has moved the ball on -- and beat -- Green Bay and Pittsburgh? Okay...
• San Diego (+7) at Pittsburgh: The Steelers win this game but, like Chicago, they are not playing blowout-caliber football right now.
• Minnesota (-4) vs. Green Bay: Who the hell knows? This is one of those games where emotion can take it either way.